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Prediction for CME (2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-31T00:15Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39185/-1
CME Note: Full-halo CME first seen in GOES-19 CCOR-1. Also seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after the beginning of a downlink period with data streaming in starting at about 2025-05-31T01:00Z. No STEREO A COR2 imagery was available in real time for this CME due to a data gap which began at 2025-05-30T19:09Z. The source is an M8.1 flare from AR 14100 (N12E12). A significant area of opening field lines and dimming can be seen from near AR 14100 (N12E12) in SDO AIA 193/171/131/304 and GOES SUVI 284/304 beginning at 2025-05-30T23:47Z, immediately after the flare. Dimming and field line movement extends along a nearby filament which spans across most of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from approximately N30E05 to S15W35, snaking through the entire NW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in a shape resembling the number '3'. It appears that most of the filamentary material ejected is from the upper lobe of the '3', and departs from approximately N10W15. This filament is also located directly next to, and runs parallel to, the SWPC-numbered Coronal Hole 52. Arrival signature: characterized by a sharp significant jump in B_total from ~7nT to above 24nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from the already elevated (by the preceding coronal high speed stream) ~700 km/s to over 1100 km/s. Ion temperature also has a significant temporary increase and there is a rather mediocre increase in ion density preceding this arrival, followed by a drop in density. After the initial shock/sheath there is a smooth rotation of magnetic field components (seen after 2025-06-01T12Z), indicating the possible start of a flux rope. There are also two more potential flux ropes seen in this 2-day solar wind signature down the road, likely indicating that there were three CMEs combined in a single front. This fast halo CME was predicted to potentially combine with (catch up) two slower, preceding, Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T05:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -121

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-01T10:31Z (-3.667h, +3.617h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 97.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Note:
There is no associated notification for this ensemble result. Details which are normally included in a notification are available below. There is also a known typo in the original control file of this ensemble simulation which produced a false miss. The T@21.5Rs in the control file had a typo of 2025-05-21 instead of 2025-05-31 which caused the associated CME parameters to not be included in the results of the ensemble simulation below.

## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-05-31T00:15:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250531-AL-008). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach:

- STEREO A between about 2025-06-01T09:56Z and 2025-06-01T18:44Z (average arrival 2025-06-01T14:09Z) for 97% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-06-01T06:51Z and 2025-06-01T14:08Z (average arrival 2025-06-01T10:31Z) for 97% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 100% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 8-9 range (severe to extreme).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-05-31_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081/Detailed_results_20250531_001500_ncmes1_sims48_LAHAINA081.txt
###


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Lead Time: 0.85 hour(s)
Difference: -5.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-01T04:31Z

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